Summary
Understanding the impact of trade deficits and foreign debt on
economic growth is vital to understanding the origins of America’s current economic
problems and to designing trade and monetary policies that will put America
back on the path to prosperity for all in the 21st century.
Unfortunately,
economists are sharply divided regarding the impact of trade imbalances on
growth.
Progressive economists such as
Scott
and
Baker
generally say that trade deficits are the leading cause of slow growth, excessive
unemployment and growing social inequality in the United States, that trade
deficits threaten the nation’s long-term economic viability.
In sharp contrast,
conservative economists such as
Riley,
Griswold
and
Ikenson
would generally say that trade deficits mean faster economic growth and falling
unemployment, that the foreign loans used to finance these deficits are an
important vote of confidence in America.
The
2015
Economic Report of the President by the Council of Economic Advisors
presents both of these conflicting positions but fails to reconcile them or to
provide meaningful policy options for action.
This note reconciles the conservative and progressive views
and presents a possible consensus position on U.S. trade policy for the 21st
Century, one that could simultaneously increase business profitability, stimulate
innovation, maximize employment, and reduce income inequality.